UDMR's Influence Grows Amid Romanian Government Crisis, Analyst Says

The Romanian political landscape, marked by a fierce power struggle between the PNL, USR, and PSD parties, has unexpectedly amplified the influence of the UDMR. This ethnic Hungarian party, a consistent participant in Romanian governments, has strategically navigated the political turmoil, even after initial negotiations with Sorin Grindeanu following a no-confidence vote against Ilie Bolojan's cabinet.

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In general, there is an influence at the level of the European Parliament, because, for those who do not know very well how the European Parliament works, in a supranational structure, practically, the representatives are gathered by political families.

Analyst Miroslav Tașcu-Stavre highlights the international dimension of UDMR's political maneuvering, particularly its embeddedness within European Parliament political families. He explains that European parliamentary groups are not solely based on electoral calculations but also serve as platforms for ideologies and influence national politics. Tașcu-Stavre points to the PNL's past shifts between political groups, contrasting it with UDMR's long-standing affiliation with the European People's Party (EPP), a center-right conservative group. This affiliation, he suggests, shapes UDMR's positions and influences discussions at the national level, especially when European Parliament members deviate from party lines.

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UDMR has been there from the beginning, although a more ethnic party has positioned itself on a common platform with the European People's Party, which is somewhere to the right of the liberals, practically they also have conservative elements.

Tașcu-Stavre also suggests UDMR's current strategy involves a careful calculation regarding the potential success of the current government. The party appears hesitant to align with sovereignist parties, with whom it has clashed previously. The analyst notes that the outcome of the current government formation process could significantly weaken the negotiation capacity for any subsequent coalition proposals. While acknowledging past investments from the Hungarian government in Romania benefiting the Hungarian community, Tașcu-Stavre currently sees no direct political influence from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on UDMR's actions.

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I think it's also a calculation that UDMR is making, namely that it's not sure if this government will pass. This will weaken the negotiation capacity for any other governing formula that will probably be proposed.