Ukraine escalates aerial war, striking deep into Russia as civilian toll rises

While the ground front lines in Ukraine remain largely static, the aerial war is escalating significantly, with both Russia and Ukraine seeing their offensive capabilities surpass their air defense systems, according to analysts.

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We definitely see an increased number of (attack) events, an increased number of casualties as well.

This shift means more aerial attacks are successfully hitting their intended targets, leading to increased damage to critical and economic infrastructure, and a rise in civilian casualties each week. "We definitely see an increased number of (attack) events, an increased number of casualties as well," said Olha Polishchuk, Eastern Europe research manager at conflict monitor ACLED.

Ukraine has notably ramped up its drone strikes deep within Russian territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a campaign to intensify these strikes, a push his advisors say will continue. Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, noted that these attacks demonstrate a "serious weakness" in Russia's interception capabilities, allowing Ukraine to reach targets successfully.

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There has been an escalation also with regard to the variety of targets that are hit.

Recent Ukrainian attacks have moved beyond occasional strikes on oil refineries to frequent assaults on refineries, oil tankers, power substations, and broader energy infrastructure. Kyiv has also increased aerial attacks aimed at disrupting Russian military logistics in occupied eastern areas and has targeted facilities belonging to Russia's largest online retailer, Wildberries, which the Ukrainian government claims supply Russian troops.

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That is a significant issue for Russia, because obviously the past 40 days have demonstrated that they have a serious weakness when it comes to interception, and Ukraine has been able to reach their targets quite successfully.

Analysts suggest these strikes serve a dual purpose: to inflict economic pressure on Russia and potentially influence its business elite, and to pragmatically slow down Russia's summer offensive by forcing it to divert resources to counter drone attacks. This strategy forces Russia to spread its air defense systems thinly across various locations, both within occupied territories and deep inside Russia, including Moscow and St. Petersburg.

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pragmatic aim to slow down Russia’s summer offensive, in terms of stretching Russia’s resources towards intercepting the drone attacks.