Ukraine war's 'balance of death' poses new challenges for post-conflict era

Ukraine and Russia are entrenched in a "balance of death" as of summer 2026, characterized by swarms of drones and attritional warfare with slow territorial shifts. A ceasefire appears improbable, with Moscow unwilling to accept less than a partial victory but lacking the military might to achieve it. Russia's large-scale drone and missile attacks, including over 1,400 projectiles on May 13-14, 2026, underscore the ongoing intensity of the conflict.

However, the scenario of continued war is not guaranteed, and Europe must prepare for the complex aftermath of a potential ceasefire. Should fighting cease, Ukraine would face a new, multidimensional struggle for its security, economy, institutions, demographics, and political cohesion. Winning the peace, especially under an imperfect agreement, could prove as demanding as enduring the war itself.

A primary challenge will be maintaining security, as a ceasefire would not alter the Kremlin's strategic objectives. Without a fundamental change in the Russian regime, Moscow would likely view a pause as an opportunity for intensified hybrid warfare. This could include cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, industrial sabotage, and political subversion aimed at destabilizing Ukraine from within.

The establishment of a long-term peace treaty also presents significant hurdles. The stability of a post-war order would depend more on the power balance it creates than on the treaty's legal text. Demands for Ukraine to demilitarize eastern Ukrainian territories would be particularly perilous, potentially inviting further Russian incursions and incentivizing Moscow to resume its conquest. Consequently, Western security guarantees would need to be backed by concrete capabilities, with Europe likely assuming the main responsibility for enforcement given potential shifts in U.S. policy.