US Intelligence Warns Iran May Escalate as War Threatens to Drag On

Iran has emerged from months of intermittent war more confident in its military capabilities and appears determined to keep the conflict going, according to recent US intelligence assessments cited by officials who have read them.

The warnings follow a new round of exchanges. Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz and American troops in the region during the past week, while US forces struck inside Iran, killing military personnel and civilians. The fighting has remained limited so far, but the intelligence reports suggest Iran’s hard-line government may be considering a significant escalation.

Officials said Iran’s recent experience has given it a clearer understanding of its military strengths. They also said the reports offered few signs that Tehran is prepared to reach an agreement with Washington. Some officials believe Iran may be content to worsen President Donald Trump’s political difficulties ahead of the US midterm elections.

Trump is not pursuing negotiations for now. He has said economic pressure can force Tehran to make concessions over its control of the strait and, eventually, its nuclear program. Officials familiar with the intelligence, however, said sanctions are likely to provoke further escalation in the short term.

US officials are also watching Iran-linked cyber activity. Hackers were most likely responsible for attacks on more than 100 water systems across the United States in late July. The attacks did not make water unsafe to drink, but some caused disruptions that required manual overrides and precautionary boil-water advisories. Officials said the hackers have shown interest in oil and gas infrastructure, although it remains unclear whether any energy systems have been breached.