US-Iran Conflict Continues, Indonesia Needs to Anticipate Impacts on Trade and Energy

Indonesia's government needs to prepare for the potential economic repercussions of the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, particularly concerning international trade and energy security. Experts emphasize that proactive measures are crucial to maintain national economic stability amid rising global geopolitical uncertainty.

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Various diplomatic initiatives have not yet resulted in a permanent solution due to the low level of trust between the parties and the limited effectiveness of international mechanisms in managing conflict.

Teuku Rezasyah, Executive Director of Global Insight Forum (GIF), highlighted that the escalating US-Iran conflict underscores the influence of geo-economics, energy security, and international trade routes on geopolitical dynamics. He noted that diplomatic efforts have yet to yield lasting solutions due to low trust and the limited effectiveness of international conflict resolution mechanisms. Rezasyah warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could strain the global economy, especially if it disrupts vital shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for oil distribution and international commerce.

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The escalation of the US-Iran conflict shows that current geopolitical dynamics are not only influenced by military power but also by geo-economic interests, energy security, and international trade routes.

Disruptions to global logistics could lead to increased shipping costs, supply chain interruptions, and rising prices for energy and commodities. These factors could significantly impact trade activities and economic stability in various countries, including Indonesia. To counter these risks, Rezasyah advised the government to bolster economic resilience by diversifying export markets, strengthening supply chains, and engaging in adaptive economic diplomacy. He also pointed to Indonesia's "free and active" foreign policy as an asset for expanding economic cooperation and fostering regional stability.

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The shift also shows the emergence of middle powers that are beginning to play more independent roles in determining the direction of regional politics without being fully dependent on the United States or other major powers.

Mulawarman Hannase, Head of Middle East Studies at the University of Indonesia, added that energy interests, trade routes, technology, and geo-economics increasingly shape Middle Eastern dynamics. This shift is enabling "middle powers" to play more independent roles. Senior Fellow at GIF, Chandra Purnama, stressed the importance of multilateral diplomacy in maintaining global stability amidst geopolitical rivalries, suggesting that future conflict resolutions will increasingly rely on middle powers establishing new balances through such diplomacy.

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The effectiveness of multilateral diplomacy will be an important factor in maintaining global stability amid increasing geopolitical rivalry.