US terror designation boosts Bolsonaro's campaign

The U.S. State Department's decision to label the PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist organizations has ignited a fierce debate online, particularly in Brazil. The timing of the announcement, just days after Flávio Bolsonaro, a presidential pre-candidate, stated he had personally lobbied Donald Trump for the measure at the White House, has drawn significant attention. This move appears to have provided a strategic advantage to Bolsonaro's campaign, helping to deflect negativity stemming from leaked audio recordings involving Daniel Vorcaro.

Data from Palver, which monitors over 100,000 public WhatsApp and Telegram groups, shows that mentions of the PCC and Comando Vermelho were minimal until the evening of May 28. Following the news spread via Brazilian media, discussions surged, dominating the conversation on May 29. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are the central figures, appearing in approximately 18% of messages where they are discussed jointly. Notably, sentiment against Lula is overwhelmingly negative, with over 80% of mentions being unfavorable.

Supporters of Bolsonaro are pushing three main narratives. The most prevalent frames the U.S. designation as validation of the right-wing argument that the PCC and Comando Vermelho are terrorist groups. Another narrative celebrates Flávio Bolsonaro's perceived influence, suggesting he secured a victory with Trump. A third narrative leverages Lula's past comments about "our criminals" to accuse his government of relativizing crime and protecting offenders.

Conversely, Lula's camp has also mobilized, albeit on a smaller scale. Their primary argument centers on national sovereignty, asserting that Brazil should not be treated as a "small republic" and that the U.S. classification could pave the way for foreign intervention. Lula himself has previously used similar rhetoric against a 2025 tariff. Another line of attack accuses Flávio Bolsonaro of being unpatriotic and betraying Brazil by involving a foreign power in domestic security matters. Some critics question whether the U.S. would apply the same terrorist label to militias in Rio allegedly linked to the Bolsonaros.

While Flávio Bolsonaro faces around 54% negative sentiment, Lula is subjected to more intense attacks. The designation has given the Bolsonaro movement an opportunity to shift the focus away from campaign risks, though it exposes them to accusations of using foreign influence for domestic gain. Lula, meanwhile, has found a unifying theme in national sovereignty, positioning Flávio Bolsonaro as a "traitor." This strategy proved effective previously, but the current focus on public security might yield different results as both sides prepare to shape narratives in the coming weeks.