US warns Poland of possible Russian provocation; Tusk: 'We are preparing for any scenario'

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has issued a stark warning, stating that the next few months could be "critical" for the security of Eastern Europe. This statement follows reports that the United States has alerted Warsaw to a potential Russian military provocation designed to test NATO's reaction. Tusk emphasized that while he does not wish to cause alarm, the changing nature of the war in Ukraine heightens these concerns, particularly in the Baltic states. Polish publication Onet reported that sources close to President Karol Nawrocki indicated the U.S. had conveyed multiple warnings about a possible attack plan against Poland. The White House and U.S. State Department have not yet officially commented. Scenarios reportedly under consideration include missile or drone attacks on Polish infrastructure or the infiltration of military personnel into the NATO member state, aiming to pressure Western allies supporting Ukraine. Tusk affirmed that Polish authorities are treating the received warnings with utmost seriousness, stating, "Let's not be afraid, we are preparing for various situations, but we cannot ignore them." He added that Poland is aware of the threats, partly due to information from allies. President Nawrocki is scheduled to attend a NATO summit in Turkey next week, where leaders are expected to reaffirm their commitment to supporting Ukraine and address calls for increased defense spending. This is not the first time Polish leaders have voiced concerns about potential Russian hostility; Tusk previously told the Financial Times in April that Russia might attack a NATO member within months.

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I don't want to scare anyone, but the next few months could indeed be critical, including due to the changing nature of the war. These concerns are felt particularly in the Baltic states.