Voters blame Lula more than Bolsonaro for online betting rise, but issue doesn't decide vote: poll

A recent survey by More in Common/Ipsos-Ipec reveals a significant portion of Brazilian voters assign more responsibility for the growth of online betting to President Lula's current administration compared to the previous government under Jair Bolsonaro.

According to the poll, 18% of those surveyed believe Lula's government is responsible for the expansion of online betting, while only 4% associate the phenomenon with Bolsonaro's tenure. A larger group, 33%, blames both administrations, and 35% hold neither responsible. The research involved 2,000 individuals aged 16 and above across 130 municipalities between July 4 and 8, with a general margin of error of two percentage points.

The trend of holding the current administration more accountable is also observed among Lula's own supporters. Fourteen percent of those who plan to vote for Lula in 2026 attribute the rise of betting to his government, while 8% blame Bolsonaro's administration. Among supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, 28% point to Lula's government, with only 3% blaming Bolsonaro's time in office. A majority in this group also diffuse responsibility, with 28% stating neither administration is at fault, 34% blaming both equally, and 7% unsure.

Pablo Ortellado, a professor at USP and director at More in Common, noted that the Lula administration "paid a price" for regulating online betting, leading to it being identified as more responsible than Bolsonaro, even among its own voters. He explained this social phenomenon is complex, influenced by factors like the ease of current technology. The legalization of online betting predates both administrations, with a provisional measure in July 2018 under President Michel Temer paving the way, later converted into law by Bolsonaro's government in December 2018. The regulatory deadline was missed under Bolsonaro, allowing bets to operate without specific rules until December 2023, when Lula's government enacted Law 14.790, establishing specific regulations for fixed-odds betting.

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We lived the worst of worlds, where sports betting was legal but didn't have to follow any rules. Faced with this scenario, the Lula government decided to regulate and paid a price, which is being identified as more responsible than Bolsonaro, even among its own voters.