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🇮🇱 Israel /Conflict & Security

'We are all shocked’ by deal, worry that regime will feel it ‘won,' Iranian source tells 'Post'

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Ongoing story
  • The US and Iran are reportedly nearing a deal, but its specifics remain unclear, leading to speculation and "spin" from both sides.
  • Some regional actors are courting Iran, seeing its strategic strengthening despite the conflict.
  • Potential outcomes range from stabilization and sanctions relief to continued low-level conflict if an agreement isn't reached.

The United States and Iran appear to be on the verge of an agreement, though the precise terms and implications remain uncertain, prompting significant speculation and strategic framing from both nations.

Until the text of the US-Iran deal is signed and released, there is going to be a lot of spin on both sides. But here is my initial take.

— Dan ShapiroFormer US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro commented on the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran deal.

This potential deal emerges after months of claims regarding an impending agreement, with many past instances involving memoranda to reach future deals rather than concrete accords. Former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro noted on X/Twitter that "Until the text of the US-Iran deal is signed and released, there is going to be a lot of spin on both sides." He added that the war was a "mistake" and that Iran has been "strengthened strategically by its survival against a heavy US-Israeli assault."

Shapiro observed that many regional countries are now seeking to de-escalate and rebuild ties with Iran, indicating a shift in regional dynamics. The current situation presents President Donald Trump with a strategic crossroads, balancing the desire for an end to the conflict with the realities of Iran's resilience.

this war was a mistake, and it needs to end. The President thought that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly, but it did not.

— Dan ShapiroShapiro reflected on the US strategy in the conflict with Iran.

Several scenarios could unfold. An optimistic outcome might involve the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Switzerland, leading to the end of blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, removal of enriched uranium from Iran, and sanctions relief. This could usher in a period of stabilization, allowing the US to pivot to other global priorities and fostering economic improvement and integration in the Middle East.

In fact, it has been strengthened strategically by its survival against a heavy US-Israeli assault and carrying out some effective counterstrikes.

— Dan ShapiroShapiro assessed Iran's strategic position following the conflict.

However, if an agreement is not reached, the region could return to the low-level conflict seen since April, with ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah and continued Iranian threats. This scenario suggests a prolonged period of regional instability.

Many countries in the region are now courting Iran and looking to de-escalate and rebuild ties. A sign of which way the wind is blowing.

— Dan ShapiroShapiro noted the changing regional dynamics regarding Iran.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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