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What if the US-Iran deal too good to be true? Potential options for Middle East's future - analysis

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Ongoing story
  • Iranians opposing the regime are reportedly "shocked" by the emerging details of a US-Iran agreement, viewing it as a potential win for Tehran.
  • Concerns exist that the deal, possibly mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, might have been influenced by a misreading of the situation by the Trump administration.
  • Some dissidents believe hardliners within Iran might sabotage the deal to weaken the regime in the long run, despite current reformist purges.

Iranians who oppose the current regime are reportedly "shocked" by the emerging details of an agreement between the United States and Iran, with one source telling The Jerusalem Post that the deal is perceived as a win for Tehran.

everything was going on organically to the advantage of the Iranian people and the world since the first war in June 2025 started against the Islamic Republic.

— Iranian sourceThe source described the situation prior to the US-Iran deal negotiations.

The source, who is in contact with individuals inside Iran, described a sentiment that things were "going on organically to the advantage of the Iranian people and the world" following a 12-day war that began with Israeli strikes on Iran in June 2025. However, dissidents are surprised by the Trump administration's involvement, with one comment suggesting the US "came to harvest what Israelis had planted while the tree was still a sapling, and he ruined the seeding."

Concerns are also surfacing about the possibility of a military coup by hardliners within Iran, stemming from opposition to the emerging deal within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While the source claims "reformists in the IRGC" have been conducting purges to isolate hardliners, there's a worry that the regime perceives the agreement as a victory.

He came to harvest what Israelis had planted while the tree was still a sapling, and he ruined the seeding.

— Iranian sourceThe source critically assessed the Trump administration's approach to the deal.

"On Iranian state TV, they described it as the victory of the axis of resistance against the US," the source noted. "We are all shocked. I was talking with a friend in Iran a few hours ago. They can’t believe they made the deal." The core concern among regime opponents is that the US has been "fooled" by Tehran.

On Iranian state TV, they described it as the victory of the axis of resistance against the US. We are all shocked. I was talking with a friend in Iran a few hours ago. They can’t believe they made the deal.

— Iranian sourceThe source relayed how the emerging deal is being portrayed and received within Iran.

Some believe it might be strategically better for Iranian hardliners to gain temporary power to "sabotage this agreement from being finalized." This perspective suggests that hardliners could disrupt the deal, ultimately weakening the regime. The source explained that "moderates within the IRGC" understand Western diplomatic language and how to "mislead Western governments, how to switch to the role of the ‘victim’, and how to shape international public opinion."

We were thinking that hardliners in Iran won’t allow the moderates and reformists to do a deal with the US.

— Iranian sourceThe source expressed surprise at the potential for a deal given internal Iranian politics.
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Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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