Weakening Rupiah Threatens Ziswaf Collection Potential

The Indonesian Rupiah's weakening against the US dollar poses a potential threat to the collection of religious charitable funds, including zakat, infak, sedekah, and waqf (Ziswaf). Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Executive Director of Indikator Politik Indonesia, points out that the core issue is not merely the exchange rate but a prolonged economic downturn and a shrinking middle class.

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Actually, the weakening of the rupiah is just a symptom or a sign. What is bigger is the weakening of the economy. This is indicated by a fairly large decrease in the middle class.

Muhtadi explained that the rupiah's depreciation is a symptom of larger economic pressures, evidenced by a significant decrease in the middle-class population over recent years. This economic strain has been compounded by the strengthening dollar, the weakening rupiah, and an economy not yet fully recovered, despite government reports of positive growth.

"Although the government reports good economic growth figures, the weakening trend is consistent and systematic. This is also accompanied by a decline in the stock market index," Muhtadi stated. He expressed concern that if this stagnant or weakening economic trend continues, the potential for national Ziswaf collection in the future will also decline.

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Although the government reports good economic growth figures, the weakening trend is consistent and systematic. This is also accompanied by a decline in the stock market index.

Previous studies had estimated Indonesia's zakat and waqf potential at around Rp 500 trillion. However, these projections were made when the middle class was relatively stronger. A 2026 survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia, measuring Ziswaf behavior from the previous year, recorded a potential of approximately Rp 343 trillion. This figure is lower than earlier estimates, reflecting the impact of the declining middle class on charitable giving.

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Our findings in 2026 based on Ziswaf behavior from the previous year were around Rp 343 trillion. This is actually a bit lower than previous Baznas studies because those studies were conducted before the trend of middle-class decline occurred.