Weather Bee: Dry second week of August erased monsoon gains from the first week

India's monsoon season experienced a setback in the second week of August, erasing the gains made during the first week and pushing the cumulative rainfall deficit back to the level seen on July 31. This fluctuation highlights the difficulty in assessing the monsoon's overall impact based on short-term weather patterns.

After a promising start to August, a dry spell during the second week resulted in a 10.5% deficit for the month's rainfall. This brought the monsoon's cumulative deficit back to 10.5%, mirroring the situation at the end of July. However, this deficit does not necessarily translate to a significant increase in the geographical area experiencing "deficient" or "large deficient" rainfall conditions.

The area under "deficient" categories, defined as a local deficit of 20%-59%, saw only a marginal increase from 45.3% to 45.4% between August 7 and August 14. Similarly, the "excess" rainfall categories saw a slight increase. This suggests that while some regions experienced drier conditions, the overall distribution of rainfall, though uneven, did not drastically worsen.

Experts caution against drawing firm conclusions about the monsoon's performance or the influence of El Niño based on just a week or two of rain. The correlation between El Niño and India's monsoon is best assessed at the seasonal scale. Furthermore, the geographical pattern of rainfall has shifted, with some states seeing improvements while others experience increased deficits. The final impact of El Niño will only become clear at the end of the season.