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What Zaluzhnyi's statement, like a cold shower, really means
🇱🇹 Lithuania /Conflict & Security

What Zaluzhnyi's statement, like a cold shower, really means

From Delfi · () Lithuanian

Translated from Lithuanian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Sources not specified Context piece
  • Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi suggested Ukraine focus on security cooperation formats beyond NATO, citing current Ukrainian military development levels incompatible with WWII-era doctrines.
  • Experts believe Zaluzhnyi's statement, while not new, serves as a useful "cold shower" for Ukrainians, highlighting NATO's identity crisis since the Soviet Union's collapse and a prevailing fear of war.
  • Some European capitals still view Ukraine's NATO membership risks as outweighing benefits, but this perception may shift as Ukraine's role in defending Europe becomes clearer.

Former Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi's recent statement has ignited a debate about Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic future. He suggested that Ukraine's current military development level makes joining NATO, an alliance still adhering to World War II-era doctrines, impractical. Instead, Zaluzhnyi urged a focus on more effective security cooperation formats.

The current level of development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine makes it impossible to join an organization guided by World War II-era doctrines.

— Valerii ZaluzhnyiExplaining his reasoning for suggesting alternative security cooperation formats instead of immediate NATO membership.

Pavel Lakeyichuk, head of the security program at the Globalistics Center 'Strategy XXI,' described Zaluzhnyi's assessment as a "cold shower" for Ukrainians, though a potentially useful one. He noted that Zaluzhnyi's points are not entirely new, as NATO has been undergoing changes. Lakeyichuk traced NATO's current challenges to its identity crisis after the Soviet Union's collapse, leading to a decline in European defense capabilities and a drift toward pacifism in many member states.

Today NATO is afraid of war. And if you are afraid, and the enemy sees it, then we are talking not about deterrence, but about blackmail. This is precisely what Russia is exploiting.

— Pavel LakeyichukAnalyzing the psychological impact of war fear on NATO's deterrence capabilities and how Russia benefits from it.

Lakeyichuk emphasized that a primary issue for NATO today is not just military capacity but also a psychological fear of war among its members. "If you are afraid, and the enemy sees it, then we are talking not about deterrence, but about blackmail. This is precisely what Russia is exploiting," he stated.

In Europe, it is still believed that the risks associated with Ukraine's membership in NATO outweigh the possible benefits.

— Pavel LakeyichukDescribing the current perception in some European capitals regarding Ukraine's potential NATO accession.

Furthermore, Lakeyichuk observed that some European capitals do not yet consider Ukraine an indispensable factor in European security. The perceived risks of Ukraine's NATO membership, he explained, are still seen as outweighing the potential benefits. However, he believes this view could change if European nations recognize Ukraine's crucial role in defending the continent alongside its allies. The decision on Ukraine's NATO membership, he concluded, has always been more political than technical, driven by the alliance's strategic interests, as seen in past expansions.

NATO's history shows that decisions to admit new members were made when it was beneficial to the Alliance's strategic interests.

— Pavel LakeyichukCommenting on the political nature of NATO expansion decisions.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Delfi in Lithuanian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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