Who polls public opinion and how surveys can influence Romanian politics

Opinion polls in Romania, intended as sociological tools to measure public sentiment, are frequently transformed into instruments of manipulation. The primary concern lies not necessarily with the research itself, but with how the presented figures are used to shape perceptions and influence electoral conduct. However, not all published poll results are fabricated, erroneous, or designed to manipulate public opinion; many are conducted according to professional standards and offer a relatively accurate snapshot of public sentiment at the time of their execution.

The timing of a poll is crucial, as sociological research captures existing preferences and perceptions only for the period it was conducted, unable to predict future developments. In politics, particularly during election campaigns, situations can evolve rapidly. New information emerges, debates occur, and revelations about candidates can quickly sway voter choices. Consequently, a poll conducted today might yield different results in two or three weeks, even without methodological flaws or data manipulation.

INSCOP Research is highlighted as a polling institute that has built a solid reputation over time, correctly anticipating the victory of the National Liberal Party in the May 2019 European Parliament elections. The institute was founded by sociologist Remus Ștefureac, who has past ties to intelligence services and diplomatic roles. Ștefureac is also involved in media projects with Sacha Dragic, the founder of Superbet.

Despite its reputation, INSCOP faced criticism following the 2024 presidential elections. Several pre-election polls indicated a significantly higher intention of vote for Mircea Geoană than his actual result. For instance, a September 2024 poll placed him first with 20.8% of voter intentions, yet he secured only 4.95% in the first round. The article notes Geoană's weak campaign performance as a counterargument. Similar to other polling firms, INSCOP also failed to accurately predict the surge in support for Călin Georgescu, who was polled at only 5.4% two weeks before the election. The article suggests the most significant question marks arise from these discrepancies.