Why PLA fighter jet sorties near Taiwan dropped to a 3-year low in the first half of 2026

Military activity by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the skies and waters near Taiwan has significantly decreased, reaching a three-year low in the first half of 2026. The number of PLA fighter jets detected near the island more than halved compared to the previous year, totaling 1,334 sorties. This marks the lowest operational tempo recorded since 2023, according to an analysis of data from Taiwan's defense ministry.

Furthermore, the number of days Taiwan detected no PLA aircraft set a new record high. The PLA also refrained from conducting any large-scale drills around the island, a departure from its post-2022 patterns. This period of reduced activity stands in stark contrast to the heightened tensions following then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in August 2022. Beijing's response then included live-fire drills around Taiwan, which subsequently led to near-daily incursions by PLA fighter jets and vessels.

The increased operational tempo in 2025 saw more than 5,400 air sorties, intensifying pressure on Taiwan. Some strategists had argued that these actions indicated a potential PLA takeover of Taiwan by 2027, aligning with the mainland military's "centennial goals."

The current reduction in PLA activity suggests a potential shift in strategy or operational tempo. While the reasons for this decrease are not detailed in the provided text, it represents a notable change from the heightened military posturing observed in recent years. The implications of this lower operational tempo for regional stability and cross-strait relations remain to be seen.