Why US 'Big Five' Publishers Flood Market with Books Amidst Declining Sales

The American book industry, dominated by the "Big Five" publishers, Penguin Random House, HarperCollins, Simon&Schuster, Hachette Book Group, and Macmillan Publishers, is characterized by an immense output of new titles. This occurs even as overall book sales decline and a significant portion of published books sell very poorly. In Germany, for instance, one percent of titles generate half the industry's revenue, while nearly 90 percent sell fewer than 100 copies.

This phenomenon is exemplified by the increasing size of bookstores, such as Barnes & Noble's new U.S. locations and Thalia's flagship store in Berlin, which offer vast selections. These stores create an illusion of boundless choice, similar to streaming service catalogs like Netflix. However, only a fraction of these books gain attention or are actually consumed by readers.

Author Nick Mamatas explains this strategy as a response to a shrinking "midlist", books that reliably attract buyers but aren't bestsellers. He argues that the problem isn't a shrinking midlist, but rather a growing one that outpaces the number of regular readers. The "pie" of readers hasn't shrunk, but the "slices" of new books have multiplied, leading to a market where a few blockbusters dominate, and many titles struggle for visibility.

The "Big Five" leverage their extensive supply chains, like Penguin Random House's particularly efficient one, to publish numerous books, including those with uncertain commercial prospects. They also make their distribution networks available to smaller publishers, contributing to the sheer volume of books entering the market. This approach concentrates sales and revenue among a few successful titles and major publishing houses.

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The problem is not that the Midlist is shrinking, but that it is growing, much faster than the circle of regular readers. The pie has not gotten smaller, but the pieces.