WIG20 stocks lag rally, investors count losses

The WIG20 index is on track to surpass its all-time record set in 2007, having already achieved a more than 20% gain this year. This strong performance is driven by sustained investor demand for domestic blue-chip stocks, leading to profits for most companies in the index.

However, not all companies have shared in this success. Dino, a supermarket chain, stands out as the year's biggest disappointment. While it initially benefited from the market rally, investor enthusiasm waned by mid-2025, and its stock has since fallen sharply. In early July, its share price hit a multi-year low near 27 Polish zloty. The company has increasingly disappointed the market with its financial results, raising concerns about its ability to maintain its previous growth and profitability pace.

Dariusz Dadej, an analyst at Noble Securities, noted that Dino's previous valuation assumed an optimistic scenario of continued dynamic growth, which he believes will be harder to achieve in the coming years. "The chain continues to open new stores dynamically, but it will be increasingly difficult to maintain the historical pace of improving results," Dadej explained. He cited the large existing store base, increasing competition in smaller towns, and the depletion of easy expansion locations as factors. Consequently, investors anticipate slower growth and lower profitability in the future.

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Sieć nadal dynamicznie otwiera nowe sklepy, ale coraz trudniej będzie utrzymywać historyczne tempo poprawy wyników. Baza sklepów jest już bardzo duża, konkurencja coraz mocniej walczy o mniejsze miejscowości, a łatwiejsze lokalizacje pod ekspansję stopniowo się kończą. W efekcie inwestorzy zakładają, że kolejne lata mogą przynieść wolniejszy wzrost i niższą rentowność niż wcześniej.

Despite these challenges, Dadej acknowledged that Dino is rapidly expanding its network, generating strong cash flows, and remains one of the most profitable retail companies in the region.

Another company facing difficulties is Kruk, a financial services firm. After reaching a record high of 510 Polish zloty at the start of the year, its stock entered a prolonged correction, trading below 400 zloty at times in June. While some losses have been recovered, the outlook is uncertain. Maciej Bobrowski, an analyst at DM BDM, sees potential for a rebound, citing improving results and operational indicators. "The company published preliminary figures for payments and expenditures for the second quarter of 2026," Bobrowski stated. "We view the presented payment data with moderate optimism. Kruk indicated that improvements are also visible in Spain, where a nearly 20% quarter-on-quarter increase was recorded, suggesting nominal payments in Spain may have exceeded 155 million zloty."

Bobrowski added that his firm's June report projected an 8.3% year-on-year increase in gross profit for the full year 2026, a more conservative view than suggested by the incentive program parameters. However, their half-year simulation indicates that gross profit in the first half of 2026 might be slightly lower year-on-year. "We emphasize that Kruk's earnings window should significantly improve in the second half of the year, and we expect gross profit in this period to grow by over 20%," he concluded.

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W naszym ostatnim raporcie analitycznym (z czerwca – red.) przyjęliśmy wzrost wyniku brutto za cały 2026 r. na poziomie 8,3 proc. r./r., co oznacza bardziej konserwatywne podejście, niż sugerują parametry programu motywacyjnego. Rozbicie naszej symulacji na półrocza wskazuje jednak, że w samym I półroczu 2026 r. wynik brutto może być nieznacznie niższy r./r. Jednocześnie akcentujemy, że okienko wynikowe Kruka powinno ulec odczuwalnej poprawie w II półroczu i spodziewamy się, że wynik brutto w tym okresie może wrosnąć o ponad 20 proc.