Will Bangladesh join the Mecca defense alliance?

Speculation is spreading that Bangladesh could join a new mutual defense arrangement linking Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. Dhaka, however, says no invitation has arrived.

The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement entered into force in early August. It says an armed attack on any one of the three signatories would be treated as an attack on all, with the stated aim of strengthening collective deterrence against aggression.

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Although it is a collective defense understanding, from a strategic perspective it is primarily an initiative to maintain the regional balance of power and advance the respective interests of the participating states.

Navine Murshid, a political science and sociology professor at North South University in Dhaka, said the agreement could affect the strategic balance across the Middle East and South Asia. “Although it is a collective defense understanding, from a strategic perspective it is primarily an initiative to maintain the regional balance of power and advance the respective interests of the participating states,” she told DW.

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We view this pact positively.

Bangladesh’s current government, led by the center-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party, supports the agreement. Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman told parliament, “We view this pact positively.” But he said Bangladesh was not yet considering membership because the question depended on the intentions of the existing members. “If they express an intention to include Bangladesh in the pact, we will certainly consider it positively,” he said.

Any move toward membership could complicate Bangladesh’s relations with India. The two countries share a 4,096-kilometre land border and maintain deep cultural and economic links, but New Delhi is a longstanding rival of Pakistan. India supported Bangladesh during its 1971 independence war and sheltered Bangladeshi refugees. Relations have become more contentious since the 2024 student-led uprising that toppled Sheikh Hasina, who was considered close to India. Hasina now lives in exile in India and has been convicted in absentia of crimes against humanity, charges she denies.

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If they express an intention to include Bangladesh in the pact, we will certainly consider it positively.

India’s Foreign Ministry said the pact has implications for national security and that officials were watching developments closely. “We continue to follow all developments that have a bearing on India's security and take all necessary steps to safeguard it,” ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters in New Delhi. Analysts say Dhaka will need to weigh its own interests carefully, particularly because they see limited scope for direct conventional war in South Asia.

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We continue to follow all developments that have a bearing on India's security and take all necessary steps to safeguard it.