Will refineries in Belarus soon be burning too?

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is increasingly vocal about his country's non-participation in the war, stating that Belarusians "do not accept war." This assertion comes as Russia's oil refineries face near-daily Ukrainian drone attacks, forcing the nation to import gasoline. In this context, Belarus's two refineries, partly owned by Gazprom and Rosneft, become strategically significant as they process Russian oil and have ramped up production.

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the Belarusians 'do not accept war'

Lukashenko, in his 33rd year of rule, appears to be carefully navigating the geopolitical landscape. He has repeatedly stressed to Putin that Belarusians are not in favor of war and has publicly rebuked Russian Ambassador to Minsk, Boris Gryzlov, for allegedly trying to draw Belarus into the conflict. During a recent visit, the author experienced a less stringent border check than anticipated, arriving in Belarus after a relatively short process.

The refineries in Belarus, particularly the one in Masyr, are crucial to Russia's energy supply. The Masyr refinery, located in southeastern Belarus not far from the Ukrainian border, is one of only two cities in the country with a tram system. The author's journey to Masyr revealed a landscape of wheat fields and small villages, a stark contrast to the industrial refinery complex.

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One should not force us here to organize a process for Boris Vyacheslavovich to drag us into the war.

Amidst reports of Ukrainian strikes on Russian petrochemical plants and oil refineries in Bashkortostan and Krasnodar, the question arises: will Belarusian refineries become targets? Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has issued unspecified threats against Belarus if it allows its territory to be used as a staging ground for aggression, as it did in 2022. Lukashenko's controlled distancing from the conflict, coupled with Belarus's role as a fuel supplier to Russia, places the country in a precarious position.

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Close the doors and next stop