Will US or China win the next war? That’s the wrong question to ask

The question of who will win the next war, particularly between the US and China, is explored in the latest Foreign Affairs magazine, highlighting a fundamental clash of strategic philosophies. The core of the debate lies in the US-led order's insistence on maintaining primacy for global stability versus China's worldview, which has fueled its ascent to become the world's second-largest power.

Contributors, steeped in a Western strategic tradition rooted in liberal realism, argue that US primacy is essential for underwriting global stability, defending democracy, and preserving its financial, technological, and military dominance. Any challenger is inherently viewed as revisionist. Paul Scharre, a lead essayist, points out that emerging technologies like drones, artificial intelligence, and robotics not only challenge traditional American military power but also enable states like Iran to wage asymmetric warfare, thereby eroding US influence.

Admiral Dennis Blair, former US Pacific commander, echoes this sentiment, asserting that China's military buildup is not defensive but aims to overturn the status quo in East Asia. He advocates for deterrence through US alliances, forward deployments, and technological leadership to ensure regional stability. Academics Michael Beckley and Hal Brands apply geopolitical theories, framing the US-China contest as a classic struggle between incumbent maritime powers and land-based revisionists.

The analysis also notes that the so-called "autocratic axis" is united more by a shared resentment of US dominance than by ideology. Conversely, the democratic coalition is depicted as fractured by competing interests and divergent views on how to engage with Beijing.