Winning without victory: Why the real war with Iran starts now-opinion

The prevailing sentiment following the recent conflict with Iran is one of disappointment for those expecting a clear-cut victory. The absence of regime change in Tehran, the incomplete dismantling of Iran's nuclear program, and the lack of a total collapse of its proxy network have led many to conclude that Israel 'did not win.' This perspective, however, misses a crucial nuance in modern warfare: outcomes are increasingly defined by shifts in reality rather than absolute conquest.

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The instinctive reaction to the recent war is simple: We did not win. There was no decisive victory. No regime change in Tehran. No full dismantling of the nuclear program. No complete collapse of the proxy axis. Instead, we saw a ceasefire, external mediation, and an uneasy return to “stability.”

From our vantage point at The Jerusalem Post, the critical question is whether Israel's geostrategic position has improved. The answer is a resounding yes. Despite internal weaknesses—years of neglect leaving border communities exposed, weakened civil resilience, and eroded national cohesion—the war yielded tangible external gains. Israel showcased impressive operational reach, inflicted damage on Iranian infrastructure, and degraded its capabilities. This outcome, which few predicted just a month and a half ago, represents a significant shift in the regional balance.

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But this framing misses the point. Modern wars are no longer defined by absolute outcomes. They are defined by shifts in reality.

Furthermore, the conflict has reshaped Israel's global standing. It is increasingly perceived as a stable and capable partner in a volatile region, opening doors for new economic and security alliances, particularly with pragmatic actors in the Gulf and beyond. The exceptional level of coordination and synchronization between US and Israeli forces during the campaign was not merely about striking Iran; it signified a broader strategic alignment. This joint effort served not only to counter Iran but also to validate joint operations and systems under combat conditions, aligning with broader US strategic goals concerning China's energy dependencies.

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The only question that matters is this: Has Israel’s geostrategic position improved? The answer is yes.

However, this analysis must be tempered with a stark warning. While Israel and the US achieved significant gains, Iran does not need a military victory to succeed strategically. It requires time and resources. The emerging arrangements around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial portion of global maritime trade passes daily, highlight this risk. Iran's ability to leverage this strategic chokepoint, even without direct military confrontation, poses a persistent threat that underscores the ongoing nature of the real war, which, as this opinion piece suggests, truly begins now.

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Because Iran does not need to win militarily to win strategically. It needs time. And it needs money.