WMO Issues Urgent Climate Warning as Record Temperatures Loom

The world must brace for continued record-breaking temperatures, as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issues an urgent climate warning. Scientists predict a high likelihood that the next five years will surpass the critical 1.5°C warming limit above pre-industrial levels. Specifically, there is a 75% chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed this threshold, with annual averages ranging from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 baseline.

Further compounding these concerns, there is an 86% probability that one of the years within this 2026-2030 period will shatter the current record set in 2024, becoming the hottest year ever recorded. While temporary exceedances of the 1.5°C mark, like the one seen in 2024, do not yet signify the failure of the Paris Agreement goals, sustained warming over decades is required to cross that permanent barrier. The WMO considers it highly unlikely, less than a 1% chance, that the world will exceed the 2°C threshold by 2030.

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The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning.

The return of the El Niño phenomenon is anticipated in 2026, with its effects expected to be most strongly felt in 2027. Over 90% probability exists that El Niño will persist until November, amplifying the global risk of extreme heatwaves. This follows a pattern where both 2023 and 2024 were recorded as the second and first hottest years, respectively. While some national meteorological agencies predict an exceptionally strong El Niño, the WMO notes unusually warm subsurface conditions in the tropical Pacific, exceeding averages by over 6°C.

Scientists remind the public that beyond rising temperatures, El Niño can trigger severe droughts and wildfires in some regions, and intense storms and floods in others. Europe has already experienced a heatwave in May, with countries like the UK, France, and Ireland reporting record-breaking temperatures for the month. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the upcoming El Niño as an "urgent climate warning," stating that its effects will intensify and spread rapidly across borders, underscoring the critical need for climate action.

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El Niño conditions will add fuel to a warming world. The impacts will be even stronger, the reach even greater, and the speed of devastation even faster.