Zelenskyy's Dismissal of Fedorov Creates Political Rival, Fuels Crisis

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears to have miscalculated by dismissing Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, creating both a political crisis and a formidable rival. The decision has spilled onto the streets, with public opinion largely rejecting the move. A poll by the Rating agency revealed that 72% of respondents opposed Fedorov's dismissal, while only 5% supported it.

Political analyst Oleksiy Haran told the Kyiv Independent that Zelenskyy's actions "gave wind to Fedorov's sails and boosted his rating." Haran observed that Fedorov's popularity "skyrocketed almost overnight," with his post-dismissal statements resonating with a public already receptive to his message.

Fedorov now joins a group of prominent Ukrainian political figures, including Zelenskyy's office chief Kyrylo Budanov and former Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, who are considered potential presidential candidates. With his youth, reformist credentials, and promise to break from the old, corrupt establishment, Fedorov increasingly projects an image similar to the one that brought Zelenskyy to power in 2019, effectively positioning himself as "Zelenskyy 2.0."

Trust in Fedorov surged from 35% to 65% in the week following his dismissal, surpassing Zelenskyy's approval rating. For comparison, in 2024, while serving as Minister of Digital Transformation, Fedorov had a trust rating of 31.2% with 24.5% distrust, according to a Razumkov Center survey. He now ranks second in trust, behind Zaluzhnyi (70%) and ahead of Budanov (62%). Zelenskyy is fourth with 59% trust.

Fedorov also appeared for the first time as a potential presidential candidate in a recent survey, with 13.4% of respondents stating they would vote for him in a first-round election. Zelenskyy garnered 22.3%, Zaluzhnyi 14.9%, and Budanov 7.2%. While Fedorov was once a close ally of Zelenskyy with seemingly minimal political ambitions, his recent dismissal has dramatically altered his political trajectory.

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Zelenskyy's actions gave wind to Fedorov's sails and boosted his rating. Fedorov's popularity skyrocketed almost overnight. Fedorov's statements on the press conference after the dismissal fell on fertile ground because the public was already ready for them.