Armenia, Wedged Between East and West, Plays Footsie with Europe

Armenia finds itself at a critical geopolitical juncture, delicately balancing its historical ties with Russia against a growing desire for closer engagement with Europe. Wedged between historic adversaries Azerbaijan and Turkey, and with Russia's influence waning due to its preoccupation with Ukraine, Yerevan is strategically diversifying its foreign policy.

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The general view is that Russia, preoccupied with its own war in Ukraine, took its eye off its interests in the south Caucasus.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government is poised for re-election, signaling a potential continuation of its westward pivot. This shift is partly driven by the bitter fallout from the 2023 conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, where the failure of Russian peacekeepers to intervene led Armenia to reassess its reliance on Moscow. The subsequent displacement of 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the region remains a deep national trauma.

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The government basically wants to spread its chips across the geopolitical board.

While Armenia seeks to strengthen ties with the West, it is not contemplating a complete break from Russia. The country remains heavily dependent on Moscow for energy and trade, with Russia being its largest trading partner. This pragmatic approach, often described as 'spreading its chips across the geopolitical board,' also includes fostering closer links with India and China. The legacy of Soviet history is still visible in Yerevan's architecture and cultural remnants, reflecting a complex national identity shaped by both past and present influences.

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One of its big exports, Ararat brandy, has a huge market in Russia.