As Israel becomes a dominant force in the Middle East, where does Turkey stand? - analysis

Following the Israeli-US strikes in Iran, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quick to condemn the action, attributing the escalation to "Netanyahu’s provocations" and expressing "deep sorrow and great concern." His pronouncements, including a prophecy that "Israel will pay the price for this," signal a complex geopolitical stance that diverges from expectations that Turkey might welcome a weakening of Iran, a regional rival.

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This all began following Netanyahu’s provocations, we feel deep sorrow and great concern.

Analysis from experts like Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security suggests Turkey has a vested interest in the current Iranian regime's survival. Ankara fears that a regime change in Iran could disrupt Turkey's role as a primary bridge between the West and the Middle East, potentially opening the door for new regional dynamics that could diminish Turkish influence. Policy expert Jonathan Adiri further posits that Turkey prefers a "crippled neighbor over a liberated one," desiring a "weakened virus" in Iran rather than a pro-Western state that could attract foreign investment away from Turkey.

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God willing, I have no doubt that Israel will pay the price for this.

Perhaps the most significant driver of Erdogan's anxiety is the "Kurdish Question." Both Iran and Turkey have historically collaborated to suppress Kurdish nationalist movements. A destabilized Iran, particularly one experiencing internal uprisings, could foster the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish entity on Turkey's southern border. This prospect is deeply concerning for Ankara, as it could embolden Kurdish aspirations in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Reports indicate that Erdogan and other Turkish officials actively pressured the US against using Kurdish forces from Iraq to move against Iran, effectively drawing a "red line" to prevent the reopening of this sensitive issue.

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Ankara does not want to see a new ‘surprise’ in the form of regime change. They are interested in the continuation of the regime because if a revolution occurs, Turkey’s monopoly as the primary bridge between the West and the Middle East simply disappears.