Businesses should track megatrends instead of waiting to invest

Waiting with large amounts of cash is not a strategy for today’s volatile world, according to Jarosław Romanowski, chief financial officer and board member of Kulczyk Investments. He argues that businesses should look for opportunities even as inflation and geopolitical crises continue to pressure global markets.

Romanowski says geopolitical volatility will remain a lasting feature of investment planning. Rather than trying to predict when it will end, investors should follow megatrends that continue despite market swings. He points to Europe’s energy transition, critical infrastructure and digitalization as areas likely to gain value over the long term.

He does not recommend a cautious approach to investment in Poland, despite the war nearby. In his view, the country offers opportunities in defense industry projects and critical infrastructure. His firm begins with macroeconomic and geopolitical analysis, then works through three scenarios: base, optimistic and pessimistic, or stress.

“

We should observe megatrends that exist despite volatility and select investment projects that align well with them.

The stress scenario now includes risks that would have sounded like science fiction several years ago, Romanowski says. These include sudden changes in tariff policy, disrupted supply chains and an escalation of armed conflicts in the Middle East or Europe. Investment teams need prepared responses if those risks materialize.

The impact differs by sector. Investors in U.S. renewable energy have suffered, he says, while European investors in the same field have not necessarily faced the same outcome. Projects outside the main megatrends must offer a higher expected return, and financing has become harder in volatile conditions.

Romanowski also sees consolidation potential in Poland’s fragmented logistics, B2B services and health-care sectors. Companies that consolidate these markets could gain, he says, while becoming a regional champion creates a different conversation with investors.

“

I would not recommend a cautious approach today, including when it comes to investment in Poland.