Coastal Niño Phenomenon in Peru Expected to Last Through Summer 2027 Amid High Temperatures

Peru's "Niño Costero" phenomenon, characterized by anomalous increases in sea surface temperature off its coast, is now projected to persist until the summer of 2027. The National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) has maintained an alert status due to the ongoing warm conditions in the sea along the Peruvian coastline.

ENFEN forecasts that the phenomenon will likely reach a strong intensity between June and September 2026. Following this period, it is expected to gradually decrease to a moderate category by the end of 2026. The updated scenario also anticipates the development of a central Pacific El Niño event, which could extend until March 2027. Consequently, air temperatures are predicted to remain above average across much of the Peruvian coast during the June-August period, driven by the sustained warming of the sea.

The "Niño Costero" phenomenon, which began in March of the current year, primarily affects the "Niño 1+2" oceanic region, located off the northern and central coasts of Peru and near Ecuador. For this specific area, ENFEN projects a 48% probability of a strong magnitude event during the 2026-2027 summer and a 46% chance of it remaining at a moderate level. Climate models indicate sea surface temperature anomalies of up to +3°C in the Niño 1+2 region in the coming weeks. Along the 60-nautical mile coastal strip, these anomalies could average +4°C, potentially exceeding +5°C and even reaching +6°C in areas like Paita, Chimbote, and Callao.

In parallel, specialists foresee the development of El Niño in the "Niño 3.4" region in the central equatorial Pacific, distinct from the "Niño Costero" and located far from South American shores. This event is expected from June 2026 to March 2027, with a higher probability of strong intensity between November and December. The sustained warming of the sea is expected to lead to air temperatures remaining above climatological values along the Peruvian coast throughout June, July, and August.