Datafolha poll: Lula leads Bolsonaro 48% to 43% in second-round presidential election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in a projected second-round presidential election, according to the latest poll from Datafolha. The survey indicates Lula would secure 48% of the vote, while Bolsonaro would receive 43%. This represents a stable political landscape compared to June, suggesting that recent political crises affecting Bolsonaro's campaign have had a minimal impact on voter intentions.

The Datafolha poll, conducted between July 23-24, 2026, surveyed 2,000 voters across Brazil. It revealed a 2-percentage-point margin of error. The results suggest that the race for the presidency remains highly competitive, with a significant portion of voters undecided or likely to change their preference before the election.

Bolsonaro's campaign has faced recent political turbulence, including investigations and public scrutiny. However, the poll's findings indicate that these challenges have not significantly swayed the electorate. Both candidates are expected to intensify their campaigns in the coming weeks, focusing on mobilizing their bases and persuading undecided voters in what is shaping up to be a closely contested election.