Economists Urge Poland's Central Bank to Delay Interest Rate Cuts

A majority of economists participating in the "Rzeczpospolita" Panel advise Poland's Monetary Policy Council (RPP) against a swift reduction in interest rates. This stance contrasts with signals from NBP President Adam Glapiński, who indicated a possible proposal for a rate cut in September after the RPP's July meeting.

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I do not rule out that, if the situation remains as it is now, I will submit a proposal at the post-holiday meeting for a 25 basis point rate cut.

Glapiński, describing RPP members as "cautious doves" and himself as less "skittish," suggested he might be the sole proponent of a rate cut this year. He expressed optimism that other council members would gradually shed their caution by mid-next year. However, the panel's experts largely advocate for maintaining current rates, at least until the year's end.

Concerns about rising oil and fuel prices are undermining the central bank's official inflation forecasts. This economic uncertainty appears to be a key factor influencing the economists' recommendation to delay rate adjustments. The debate within the RPP highlights differing views on the appropriate monetary policy response to current economic conditions.

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I am perhaps the only one who is considering a rate cut this year.

The prevailing expert opinion favors stability or even a potential increase in rates over immediate cuts. The panel's consensus suggests that prudence is warranted, especially given the volatile energy market and its potential impact on inflation. Further analysis is needed to determine the most probable scenario for interest rates moving forward.

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Maybe I am the only one who takes into account a rate cut this year.