El Niño Intensifies, Bringing Drier Conditions Across Indonesia; Super El Niño Possible

Jakarta, Indonesia – Indonesia is bracing for a week of generally lower rainfall as dry conditions intensify across the archipelago, driven by a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has highlighted the growing dominance of dry weather, particularly in southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.

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Dry conditions are becoming more dominant, particularly across most parts of southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.

The BMKG's latest Niño 3.4 index has strengthened to +1.24, confirming the El Niño phenomenon is in a moderate category. This, along with a negative Southern Indian Ocean Oscillation (SIOD) index, is contributing to reduced rainfall potential nationwide. Currently, about 48.9 percent of Indonesia's territory has officially entered the dry season, and a significant portion of monitoring stations are recording Very Long Dry Days, with no rainfall for 31 to 60 consecutive days.

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Since April, the Pacific Ocean has been warming and strengthened to 1.25 degrees Celsius as of July 5, 2026.

Adding to the concern, maximum air temperatures have exceeded 35 degrees Celsius in several provinces between July 1 and July 5, 2026. Researchers from the National Research and Innovation Agency's (BRIN) Climate and Atmospheric Center corroborate the BMKG's assessment. Erma Yulihastin, a climate science researcher, noted that the Pacific Ocean has been warming since April, with sea surface temperature anomalies reaching 1.25 degrees Celsius as of July 5. She warns that global climate models project this year's El Niño could intensify into a 'super El Niño,' with anomalies potentially reaching +2.0 degrees Celsius.

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As predicted, El Niño has shifted from a weak phase to a moderate phase.

Yulihastin also pointed out that the 2026 El Niño exhibits a subsurface heat propagation pattern similar to the 1997 event and a spatial structure resembling the 2015 El Niño. Cooling has begun to develop beneath the western Pacific near Papua, indicating El Niño's influence is spreading further across Indonesia. This developing pattern suggests a potentially significant and prolonged dry period for the nation.

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many global climate models project this year's El Niño could continue intensifying into a super El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies potentially reaching +2.0 degrees Celsius.