El Niño threatens food security for 3.2 million in Guatemala

Guatemala faces a severe food security crisis as the effects of El Niño are projected to leave 17% of its population, or about 3.2 million people, in acute food insecurity during the third quarter of 2026. The government issued this warning, highlighting the critical situation.

According to an Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report, a deficit in rainfall will exacerbate crop losses of basic grains. This is particularly concerning for rural households whose food reserves are dwindling, potentially triggering a severe scarcity season. The projected numbers for July-September 2026 show a worsening scenario compared to April-June, when 2.5 million people (14% of the population) were affected.

Guatemala, where over half of its 18.3 million inhabitants live in poverty, has experienced recurring food crises since 2020. Mireya Palmieri, head of the Secretariat of Food Security and Nutrition (SESAN), stated that the projections aim to guide state decision-making and humanitarian aid. The methodology focuses on providing information for medium and long-term food security policies and programs.

The department of Alta Verapaz remains the most critical region, with over 28% of its local population facing crisis levels of food insecurity. The scarcity is expected to spread to nine departments in the western highlands and the semi-arid Dry Corridor, including Huehuetenango, Quiché, Jalapa, Jutiapa, and Zacapa. Prolonged dry spells and extreme temperatures in these rural areas have depleted families' corn and bean reserves. The report also warns that El Niño's likely consolidation during the planting season could reduce demand for temporary agricultural labor, a primary income source already impacted by rising costs of fertilizers, fuel, transportation, and basic food items.

Authorities anticipate a slight recovery towards the end of the year, between October 2026 and February 2027. During this period, the number of affected individuals could decrease to 2.6 million, attributed to year-end harvests, seasonal employment in coffee and sugar cane, and an increase in family remittances.

“

The purpose of the methodology is to offer information for formulating food security policies and programs in the medium and long term.