Eurasian energy routes become geopolitical battlegrounds as traditional resource logic shifts

For decades, the global energy map was defined by where resources lay – the Persian Gulf's oil, Russia's gas to Europe, and Central Asia's production capacity. However, a new reality is emerging where wars, sanctions, and geopolitical competition are reshaping this logic. The strategic importance of energy is no longer solely about what's underground, but critically about whether it can reach international markets, via which routes, and with how many alternative options.

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The Middle East is the only region that can actually supply oil and gas to growing China and India’s needs.

Central Asian nations like Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are finding this shift particularly consequential. Kazakhstan's heavy dependence on routes through Russia highlights its vulnerability. Turkmenistan, despite vast gas reserves, faces limited export channels. Uzbekistan is increasingly looking towards Afghanistan to secure new connections to global markets. Meanwhile, China is actively constructing multiple routes across Eurasia, aiming to reduce its reliance on maritime chokepoints and single corridors.

Abzal Narymbetov, an oil and gas industry expert, explains that while the US and China lead in production, countries with significant exportable surpluses are few, primarily in the Middle East. "The Middle East is the only region that can actually supply oil and gas to growing China and India’s needs," Narymbetov stated. He emphasized that the vulnerability of routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, transforms energy supply into a strategic geopolitical issue. "When you have a bottleneck like the Hormuz, then you will have the next road is only the inland," he noted.

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When you have a bottleneck like the Hormuz, then you will have the next road is only the inland.

While inland routes cannot replace the sheer volume of maritime energy flows, their geopolitical value rises significantly when sea lanes become precarious. This is precisely why China's expansion of pipelines and rail across the Eurasian landmass is so significant. Narymbetov asserts that China must develop these alternatives due to its immense and growing energy consumption. "China needs to develop inland routes, because there is no way that you will replace the oil and gas consumption that China now needs," he said. This strategic imperative places Central Asia at a critical juncture, fundamentally altering its position in global energy discussions.

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China needs to develop inland routes, because there is no way that you will replace the oil and gas consumption that China now needs.