Expensive electricity forecast for Finland's autumn

Finland is bracing for a costly electricity autumn, with current fixed contract prices already signaling a substantial increase. The price of electricity, excluding tax, was below five cents per kilowatt-hour in October-November 2025, but is now rising to around nine cents per kilowatt-hour.

The primary factor driving this surge is the diminishing water reserves in hydropower plants located in Southern Norway and Northern Sweden. Weather forecasts do not indicate an immediate improvement in this situation. Juho Kinni, head of portfolio management and market analytics at energy company Helen, noted that the dry conditions in Southern Norway are particularly impactful.

"If there were a rainy autumn there now, it could have an effect on prices," Kinni said. Additionally, maintenance work on Finland's Olkiluoto 3 and Loviisa 2 nuclear power plants in the autumn could affect supply. However, Kinni mentioned that such maintenance in the Nordics typically concludes in October without significant delays in recent years.

Geopolitical events, including the conflict in Iran, are also playing a role, particularly impacting Central European electricity prices. The war has damaged energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and the recovery will take time. Central Europe's reliance on fossil fuels like natural gas, whose prices have risen considerably, further exacerbates the situation. These higher prices in Central Europe then influence Finland's electricity costs through interconnections. Kinni also pointed out that while Southern Norway has exported significant electricity, this is less feasible now, with Central Europe occasionally importing electricity produced by fossil fuels into Southern Norway.

“

If there were a rainy autumn there now, it could have an effect on prices.