Experts: Are Russians hitting the panic button?

Experts are questioning whether Russia is feeling pressured, citing a significant increase in the scale of Ukrainian drone attacks. Data comparing July 6 to August 6 in 2025 and 2026 shows a 3.2-fold rise in the number of Ukrainian drones reportedly intercepted by Russia's Ministry of Defense. Notably, Russian official and unofficial channels are not attempting to portray this as an increase in Russian air defense effectiveness, but rather acknowledge the growing scale of Ukrainian strikes.

While the overall trend of Ukrainian strikes fluctuates, with a peak in July 2026 (62 strikes) comparable to November 2025 (58 strikes), the combination of these numbers with the increased volume of Ukrainian drones suggests a shift. It is highly probable that Ukraine's significantly expanded drone production and operational capacities enable them to deploy more firepower per target, increasing success rates, and to execute larger-scale deception operations involving decoy drones and attack directions.

Analysis of Ukrainian target selection reveals a shift in focus. In the second half of 2025, oil and gas infrastructure dominated targets (47.4%), followed by military industry (18%), military targets (14.5%), and energy (20%). The high intensity of strikes on energy infrastructure was likely a response to Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy sector as winter approached. However, in the first half of 2026, strikes on the aggressor's military industry increased (24.4%), and oil and gas infrastructure remained dominant (59.1%), while attention to other targets diminished.

This strategic shift is likely influenced by Ukraine's expanded long-range strike capabilities, now reportedly exceeding 2,000 km, utilizing improved weaponry like "Flamingo" missiles and the FP1 version. Experts believe this is a deliberate Ukrainian choice to deepen Russia's problems in key strategic sectors. Strikes against the military industry have concentrated on factories producing various missiles, aviation components, and electronics. Additionally, Ukrainian forces have begun regularly targeting "Wildberries" logistics centers in July, presenting a new challenge for Russian air defense. The intensity of Ukrainian medium-range strikes (up to 300 km) also significantly increased in the first half of 2026.