Syria transforms Russian bases, signaling Moscow's diminishing influence

Russia is facing a series of setbacks, including doubts about the practical benefits of its main military bases in the Middle East and a warm reception for Ukraine's president from a traditional European ally. Additionally, the leader of a former Soviet republic has shown unprecedented disobedience, according to The Times.

Syria announced Sunday that its Russian air base in Khmeimim and naval base in Tartus will no longer be exclusively controlled by Moscow. These facilities, the only official Russian military bases outside the former Soviet Union, will be reorganized into "joint exercise" centers. The changes began after Bashar al-Assad, a key Kremlin ally, was ousted in 2024 and replaced by Ahmed al-Shara, a commander of an Islamist-led rebel movement, as Syria's president.

Despite the Russian military's nine-year support for Assad, which resulted in thousands of Syrian rebels and civilians killed, President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops not to intervene when rebels stormed Damascus. Syria described the agreement regarding the bases in the eastern Mediterranean as a "reorganization of the Russian presence," paving the way for a "new stage of Syrian-Russian relations." While Syria emphasized the agreement was reached with Moscow and would ensure mutual interests, it noted that civilian facilities at both bases would be transferred to Damascus.

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Russia is very cautiously assessing how much A. al-Shara will actually be able to maintain power and stabilize the situation in Syria. And we will simply wait.

Anna Notte, an expert on Russian foreign policy and the Middle East, observed that the likelihood of Russia using Syrian bases for its military needs in the future is decreasing, though it cannot be entirely ruled out. "Russia is very cautiously assessing how much A. al-Shara will actually be able to maintain power and stabilize the situation in Syria. And we will simply wait," she said.

Russia had used its bases in Syria to transport supplies and fighters for the "African Corps," a successor to the Kremlin-controlled Wagner mercenary group, to Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and other regions on the continent. Although the agreement allows Moscow limited rights to refuel military aircraft stationed at Khmeimim, Nikita Smagin, an expert on Iran and Russian policy in the Middle East, believes Russia has little reason for optimism. "The new Syrian leadership is gradually pushing Russia out of the country... The goal is to get rid of it entirely. It's just not happening instantly. The Syrian leadership is acting quite pragmatically, and I would even say quite intelligently, as it tries not to harm relations with Russia during this complex transitional, still unstable period," he noted. Hardliners in Russia have already criticized the agreement, even as the Kremlin likely attempts to present it positively.

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The new Syrian leadership is gradually pushing Russia out of the country... The goal is to get rid of it entirely. It's just not happening instantly. The Syrian leadership is acting quite pragmatically, and I would even say quite intelligently, as it tries not to harm relations with Russia during this complex transitional, still unstable period.