France risks military leadership loss to Germany, warns army chief

France faces a significant risk of ceding its military preeminence in Europe to Germany, a stark warning issued by General Fabien Mandon, the chief of staff of the French Army. In closed-door Senate hearings in April and May, Mandon highlighted France's current inability to fully meet future security challenges. He cautioned that if Germany maintains its current trajectory, France could fall behind within five years, losing its operational experience and established military culture.

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France has not yet reached the necessary level to fully face future challenges.

Mandon noted that Germany is increasingly becoming the European benchmark for the United States. Projections indicate Germany's defense spending could reach approximately 153 billion euros annually by 2029, representing about 3.5% of its GDP – the most substantial military expansion since reunification. In contrast, France aims for around 76.3 billion euros by 2030. France's current military planning law proposes an additional 36 billion euros by 2030 but does not include significant new acquisitions of aircraft or naval vessels.

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We could be left behind. If Germany continues at this pace, in five years, the argument that we have operational experience and a certain culture will no longer hold.

The general also sounded an alarm about a potential "shock" with Russia within the next three to four years, stressing the need for the French army to be prepared. He identified critical deficiencies, particularly in the air force, which he described as undersized. Despite a government promise for 30 additional Rafale fighter jets, these are absent from the current military planning law. Instead, the development of a drone squadron with a 3,000 km range is being considered.

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For the Americans, Germany is gradually becoming the European reference.

Mandon further criticized the production pace of France's defense industry, calling it a strategic vulnerability. While companies like MBDA operate at full capacity, insufficient production lines hinder deliveries. "I am not satisfied with the current production level, and I believe its insufficiency is a threat to our national defense," he stated. He acknowledged the French industry's capability to produce high-level military technology but lamented its inability to manufacture it quickly or cost-competitively.

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I am not satisfied with the current production level and I believe its insufficiency is a threat to our national defense.