Global fatty liver disease cases may reach 1.8 billion by 2050 – Study

A new global analysis published in The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023 reveals a stark and growing public health crisis: metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). The numbers are alarming, with 1.3 billion people already living with the condition in 2023, a figure projected to surge to 1.8 billion by 2050. This represents a staggering 42% increase, fueled by population growth and the pervasive impact of modern lifestyles.

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The findings, published as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023 and funded by the Gates Foundation, showed that the number of people living with the condition increased by more than 140 per cent since 1990, highlighting a growing public health challenge driven largely by rising obesity, high blood sugar, and smoking.

The study, funded by the Gates Foundation, highlights that MASLD, previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, has more than doubled its prevalence since 1990. This dramatic rise is directly linked to escalating rates of obesity, high blood sugar, and smoking – factors that are increasingly prevalent globally. The disease is not merely a statistical anomaly; it is already a significant contributor to ill health, accounting for millions of disability-adjusted life years globally.

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Metabolically-dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, is characterised by an abnormal accumulation of fat in the liver in people who drink little or no alcohol and is closely linked to obesity, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic syndrome.

For Nigeria, as highlighted by PUNCH Healthwise, this trend is particularly concerning. Modern diets, characterized by processed foods, sugary drinks, and unhealthy eating habits, are placing a growing number of Nigerians at risk. The low awareness surrounding liver diseases, including hepatitis, fatty liver disease, cirrhosis, and cancer, further exacerbates the challenge. World Liver Day, observed annually on April 19, serves as a crucial reminder of the largely preventable nature of these conditions through simple lifestyle changes. The theme for 2026, “Solid Habits, Strong Liver,” underscores the urgent need for a societal shift towards healthier living.

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Experts in the report also emphasised that modern lifestyles, characterised by frequent consumption of processed foods, alcohol, sugary drinks, and late-night eating, are placing more Nigerians at risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated liver disease.

The research, which analyzed data from 204 countries and territories, identifies high fasting plasma glucose and obesity as the primary drivers of the disease burden. This underscores the critical need for targeted prevention efforts. As cases are projected to rise, particularly in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, the future economic and health implications are profound. The findings serve as a wake-up call for individuals and governments alike to prioritize liver health and implement robust public health strategies.

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The researchers analysed data across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, tracking prevalence rates, disability-adjusted life years, and the contribution of key modifiable risk factors, including high blood sugar, obesity, and smoking, before projecting future trends to 2050.