Guaraní appreciation erodes gains from Paraguay’s stronger export volumes

Paraguay exported 4.07 million more tonnes in the 12 months from August 2025 through July 2026, a 27% increase. Yet export income in guaraníes barely changed, falling from G. 81.97 trillion to G. 81.89 trillion.

The Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters, Capex, attributes the result largely to the appreciation of the guaraní. Using official data from the Central Bank of Paraguay, it calculated that the exchange-rate effect equaled $2.342 billion, about 19% of the value exported during the period.

Capex said the higher volume added G. 22.38 trillion to income, while changes in international prices reduced it by G. 7.01 trillion. The exchange rate removed a further G. 15.45 trillion.

Without the currency effect, and considering only export volumes and international prices, sector income would have reached G. 97.34 trillion, 19% above the previous period. The stronger guaraní absorbed almost all of that improvement, leaving the final result at G. 81.89 trillion.

The exporters’ group said the impact crosses several parts of the economy. For primary products, the exchange-rate effect amounted to $869 million, or 20% of export value, even as overseas volumes rose 31%. The effect reached $861 million, or 19%, for agro-industrial manufactures, and about $400 million, or 18%, for industrial manufactures.

Capex warned that the deterioration could affect businesses, employment and investment. It said soybean exports also illustrate the gap between producing and exporting more and generating higher income, although the provided account ends before detailing that example.