Gulf states must diversify defense, build domestic capability: expert

Gulf states must diversify their defense relationships and build domestic capabilities to navigate uncertain U.S. commitments and Middle East volatility, according to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.

Vakil, speaking at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Dalian, China, highlighted regional governments' deep reliance on the United States for security, coupled with growing unease about Washington's long-term strategy. She pointed to the Trump administration's "regime change-light strategy" as destabilizing, despite assurances against regime change.

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The strategy going forward … is to diversify their defence relationships to build up their capabilities over the short and medium term, but also to continue managing the diplomatic track.

Amidst what she described as a "very uncomfortable moment" due to unpredictable U.S. policy and a pragmatic yet unpredictable Iran, Vakil urged Gulf states to actively shape outcomes rather than solely relying on the Trump administration. "The strategy going forward … is to diversify their defence relationships to build up their capabilities over the short and medium term, but also to continue managing the diplomatic track," she stated, emphasizing that "Geography is their destiny."

Her remarks coincide with efforts by the U.S. and Iran to achieve lasting peace following over 100 days of conflict. A recent memorandum of understanding outlines a 60-day timeline for a peace deal, addressing issues like the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. This timeline has faced skepticism, particularly when compared to the 18 months it took to finalize the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

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Geography is their destiny.