Harga emas susut didorong jangkaan kenaikan kadar faedah Fed

Gold prices are anticipated to fluctuate within the range of $4,000 to $4,300 per ounce in the immediate future, largely dictated by the lack of clear economic indicators regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Mohd Faizal Mohd Nor, CEO of Nubex Sdn. Bhd., explained that gold's price movements are closely tied to expectations about U.S. interest rates, which generally have an inverse relationship with gold prices. When interest rate expectations rise, gold prices tend to face pressure and potentially decline. Earlier in the year, gold prices reached their peak, driven by expectations that the Fed would lower interest rates and by geopolitical uncertainties that boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Currently, there is a divergence of opinion regarding interest rates, with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh favoring an increase while U.S. President Donald Trump advocates for a decrease. "For now, there is not enough clear indication, causing gold prices to still move within the current range without significant changes," Faizal stated. The impact of geopolitical conflicts in West Asia has become limited, as most risks were already factored into the market. "Usually, when a conflict occurs, the price of gold rises first based on market expectations. When the conflict actually happens, its impact on gold prices is no longer that significant because it has already been considered in market valuations," he noted. Gold prices also tend to rise if conflicts lead to higher inflation or slow global economic growth, increasing concerns about recession and job losses. Conversely, during periods of strong economic expansion, investors typically shift funds to higher-return stock markets, reducing demand for gold. "Gold serves as a hedge against inflation, preserving wealth during economic uncertainty or currency depreciation," Faizal explained. Dr. Aimi Zulhazmi Abdul Rashid, an economic analyst at UniKL Business School, added that the current decline in gold prices, despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, indicates that the metal is now more influenced by the strength of the U.S. dollar and high interest rate expectations. The notion that war invariably causes gold prices to rise is not always true, and the price increase since the beginning of the year prompted many investors to take profits as soon as conflict news emerged. Global investors are also shifting towards the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds as safe assets.