Indonesia braces for drier-than-normal dry season as El Niño strengthens

Indonesia faces the prospect of a significantly drier dry season in 2026, with the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) warning that over 80 percent of the archipelago could experience below-normal rainfall. The peak of this dry season, expected between August and September, is predicted to be more severe than usual.

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For the beginning of July, it's already 70 percent. As much as 70 percent of Indonesia is experiencing below-normal rainfall conditions. BMKG predicts that in August and September, more than 80 percent, or around 80 to 90 percent of Indonesia, will experience below-normal rainfall conditions.

The primary driver behind this forecast is the strengthening El Niño phenomenon, which the BMKG anticipates will reach a strong category. Indications of this drier trend are already evident, with 51 percent of Indonesia experiencing below-normal rainfall in June, a figure that rose to 70 percent by early July. The agency projects this trend to intensify, affecting 80 to 90 percent of the country during August and September.

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So this needs to be anticipated by all levels of society. This is also an indication of why BMKG stated that this year's dry season will be drier than usual.

Supari, the BMKG's Coordinator for Climate Variability Analysis, stated that the dry conditions could persist into October and even November in some areas. He emphasized the need for public anticipation, noting that the BMKG had predicted a drier and longer dry season for 2026 since the beginning of the year. The current El Niño observation index has reached 1.5, confirming its active status and strengthening intensity, which is expected to have a tangible impact on drought conditions across Indonesia.

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We stated that El Nino has the potential to occur this year and it has the potential to cause drought. Latest observation results until June show that the monthly El Nino observation index has reached level 1.5. This is a sign that El Nino is active and its intensity continues to strengthen. BMKG predicts its intensity can reach a strong level and will certainly have a real impact on drought in Indonesia.