Indonesia braces for severe dry season, peak in September: BMKG

Indonesia is facing a particularly harsh dry season this year, with the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasting its peak from August to September. BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani has urged regional governments and the public to remain vigilant against the potential spread of forest and land fires (karhutla) and drought, which are expected to be more severe than in typical dry seasons.

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The peak of this year's dry season in Indonesia is expected to occur in August to September.

As of mid-July, approximately 54.5% of Indonesia's landmass, equivalent to 509 rainfall zones (ZOM), has entered the dry season. In contrast, 11.8% of ZOMs are still experiencing the rainy season, and 33.7% fall into a single-season category. BMKG's analysis indicates that a significant portion of the country, around 48.77% of land area (437 ZOMs), is likely to endure a longer dry spell than normal.

Faisal noted that BMKG's monitoring as of July 28, 2026, detected 4,900 hotspots, with the highest concentrations in West Kalimantan, Riau, South Papua, Aceh, and East Kalimantan. These findings serve as an early warning for increased karhutla risks as the dry season intensifies. To combat these threats, BMKG is conducting Weather Modification Operations (OMC) for mitigation in vulnerable areas, supported by funding from the Ministry of Forestry and the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB).

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The rainfall will be higher in some areas after the peak of the dry season.

These OMC efforts are currently underway in South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan, with additional OMC posts being prepared to bolster the mitigation of hydrometeorological disasters. The BMKG also highlighted that global climate developments continue to favor dry weather in Indonesia. The Niño 3.4 index is recorded at +2.26, indicating a strong El Niño event that is predicted to strengthen further. This phenomenon is expected to reduce cloud formation and suppress rainfall across various regions.

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This finding is an early indication of the increasing risk of karhutla leading up to the peak of the dry season.

Projections for the first ten-day period of August 2026 show that low rainfall categories will dominate approximately 91.43% of Indonesian territory. Only 8.57% of areas are expected to experience moderate rainfall, with no regions predicted to have high or very high rainfall. The dry conditions are already having a tangible impact, evidenced by the diminishing availability of water resources.

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The phenomenon has the potential to reduce cloud formation and suppress rainfall in various regions.