Indonesia's Dry Season to Be Drier This Year, Peak in September

Indonesia is bracing for a potentially severe dry season, with the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasting its peak between August and September. BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani has urged local governments and the public to remain vigilant against the heightened risks of forest and land fires, as well as drought conditions, which are anticipated to be more intense than in typical dry seasons. Following this peak, some regions may experience significant rainfall from October to November. As of mid-July, a substantial portion of Indonesia's land area, approximately 54.5 percent across 509 climate zones, had already entered the dry season. BMKG data from July 28, 2026, revealed 4,900 hotspots, with West Kalimantan, Riau, South Papua, Aceh, and East Kalimantan showing the highest concentrations, signaling an increased risk of wildfires as the dry season intensifies. To combat these threats, BMKG is conducting Weather Modification Operations (WMO) in vulnerable areas like South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan, supported by the Ministry of Forestry and the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB). The agency is also establishing additional WMO posts to bolster disaster mitigation efforts. Global climate patterns, particularly a strong El Nino with a Nino 3.4 index of +2.26, are exacerbating the situation by suppressing rain cloud formation and reducing rainfall. BMKG predicts low rainfall across 91.43 percent of Indonesia in early August, contributing to reduced water availability and escalating fire risks.

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Higher rainfall is expected in several regions.