Iran can hold out longer than expected; limited Strait of Hormuz deal is best solution: US expert

The current US strategy toward Iran, characterized by pressure and sanctions, appears to be hitting its limits. As Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, points out, a comprehensive nuclear deal might not be the most pragmatic immediate goal. Instead, he advocates for a more focused, smaller-scale agreement centered on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade.

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The most realistic solution at the moment is a limited agreement centered on opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Nephew, who played a key role in designing sanctions during the Obama administration and participated in the 2015 JCPOA negotiations, expresses significant concern about the current approach. He highlights a fundamental shift in Iran's power structure since 2015. Back then, reformist factions held influence, and sanctions relief could be more broadly distributed. Today, however, the IRGC has consolidated power, meaning any benefits from sanctions relief would likely be controlled by this entity, effectively providing a bailout for the regime and potentially reinforcing its repressive apparatus.

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Large-scale sanctions relief at this point, predicated on Iran's nuclear concessions, is a bailout for the IRGC.

Furthermore, Nephew argues that the urgency for extensive sanctions relief has diminished. Iran's nuclear program, once vast, has been impacted by frequent military actions, reducing the need for the US to offer significant concessions. He dismisses the idea of a 'permanent' ban on uranium enrichment as unrealistic, suggesting that focusing on verifiable, albeit shorter-term, restrictions is a more achievable objective. The true challenge, he stresses, lies in the verification process, which has been significantly undermined by the collapse of the IAEA's inspection system within Iran.

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The real issue is how to verify, not the level of restriction.

From a South Korean perspective, the complexities of international diplomacy and the delicate balance of power in the Middle East are always of interest. While the immediate focus might be on global economic stability, the long-term implications of regional conflicts and nuclear proliferation are closely watched. The emphasis on verification and the potential for unintended consequences of sanctions relief resonate with a nation that has its own experiences with complex geopolitical negotiations. The idea that time might favor Iran, especially with fluctuating global oil prices, underscores the need for careful, strategic engagement rather than hasty decisions.

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Iran can hold out much longer than President Trump thinks.