Iran's Guards Seize Wartime Power, Blunting Supreme Leader's Role

The ongoing war with the US and Israel has fundamentally altered the power dynamics within Iran, creating a new reality where the Supreme Leader's absolute authority is no longer the sole defining characteristic of the Islamic Republic. The tragic loss of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the subsequent rise of his son, Mojtaba, have ushered in an era where the IRGC commanders wield significant influence, shaping both military strategy and critical political choices.

While Mojtaba Khamenei remains at the apex, his role appears to be more of a legitimizer for decisions made by his generals rather than an independent decision-maker. This concentration of power within a hardline inner circle, including the Supreme National Security Council and the IRGC, has led to a more complex and potentially slower decision-making process. This is evident in the reported delays in responding to peace talks, a situation that Pakistani officials mediating between Iran and the US have noted.

From our perspective at the Kathmandu Post, this internal shift is crucial for understanding Iran's posture in international negotiations. The absence of a single, undisputed clerical arbiter means that the IRGC's influence is paramount. Figures like IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi have emerged as pivotal players, particularly in matters of military strategy and ceasefire announcements. This evolving leadership landscape, marked by the IRGC's ascendancy, will undoubtedly shape Iran's approach to future talks and its overall stance on the global stage. The complexities arising from this new power structure are vital for international observers to comprehend.

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The Iranians are painfully slow in their response. There is apparently no one decision-making command structure. At times, it takes them 2 to 3 days to respond.