Iran's Internal Divisions Complicate U.S. Peace Talks; Trump Weighed Full War But Pursues Talks

Internal divisions within Iran between hardliners and moderates have emerged as a critical factor influencing the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. The civilian leadership, centered around President Masoud Pezeshkian, aims to ease economic hardship exacerbated by war and sanctions by securing the release of frozen funds. However, hardline military groups, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reportedly prioritize gaining control over the Strait of Hormuz.

According to officials familiar with the negotiations, the IRGC warned mediators in Doha that Iran would re-blockade the Strait of Hormuz if its sole control was not guaranteed. The IRGC is also demanding that the U.S. and other nations cease plans to reroute ships through the southern shipping lane near Oman. Analysts suggest this stance reflects an intention to use the Strait of Hormuz as both a bargaining chip and a source of revenue.

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Free passage through the Strait of Hormuz under the memorandum of understanding is only for 60 days. Iran will not give up its rights in the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances.

Iran emphasizes that the temporary free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is a short-term measure. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and head of the Iranian negotiating team, stated in a state television interview that the free passage under the memorandum of understanding is only for 60 days. He asserted that Iran would never relinquish its rights in the Strait of Hormuz and warned that while Iran seeks dialogue, it is prepared for war if the U.S. fails to uphold its commitments.

The Trump administration, conversely, insists that the Strait of Hormuz must remain freely navigable, as it was before the conflict. The U.S. is linking the release of frozen Iranian assets to Iran's commitment to keeping the Strait open. President Pezeshkian indicated that $6 billion of Iran's $12 billion in Qatari-held funds would be released first, but Qatar has stated that no funds have been transferred to Iran yet.

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We are prepared for war if the United States does not fulfill its promises.

The Doha talks have not progressed to direct meetings. A senior U.S. official mentioned that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were scheduled to meet with Qatar's Prime Minister and other mediators to continue regional dialogue regarding the MoU. U.S. and Iranian delegations were expected to hold separate technical meetings with Qatari and Pakistani mediators on July 1st. However, Iranian and Qatari officials clarified that no direct U.S.-Iran meeting was scheduled.

Amidst this stalemate, reports indicate that former President Donald Trump had considered resuming a full-scale conflict with Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump discussed plans for large-scale airstrikes on Iranian military facilities with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine. However, Trump reportedly decided to maintain a negotiating stance for the time being, believing that a full-scale war could jeopardize diplomatic efforts and hinder the goal of dismantling Iran's nuclear program. He has also reportedly informed his staff that if negotiations proceed smoothly, more time could be granted beyond the August 18th deadline for the nuclear deal.

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The U.S. and Iran delegations are expected to participate in separate technical meetings with Qatari and Pakistani mediators on July 1st.