Iran Strike on UAE Pushes Abu Dhabi Closer to Israel Alliance - Analysis

Iran's recent drone and missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates represent a significant escalation, directly targeting a nation that has embraced normalization with Israel through the Abraham Accords. Tehran's actions are clearly intended as a punitive measure, aiming to dissuade the UAE and other regional states from further cooperation with the Jewish state. Iran views the peace deals as a direct threat to its regional ambitions and seeks to punish Abu Dhabi for what it perceives as a betrayal.

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Iran’s attacks on the UAE will likely lead to Abu Dhabi viewing Israel as a stronger and necessary partner after these latest attacks.

Paradoxically, these Iranian provocations are likely to achieve the opposite of Tehran's intended effect. Instead of isolating Israel, the attacks will almost certainly push Abu Dhabi closer to Jerusalem. The UAE will likely perceive Israel as an even more crucial and indispensable partner in navigating the volatile regional landscape. This shared threat perception, stemming from Iranian aggression, solidifies the strategic rationale behind the Abraham Accords and strengthens the nascent alliance.

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As such, it sees the peace between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain as a threat. It wants to punish the UAE for working with Israel.

The current Iranian tactics bear a striking resemblance to previous incidents. The September 2019 attacks on Saudi energy facilities at Abqaiq, the assaults on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, and the mining of vessels at the UAE port of Fujairah all foreshadow the current pattern of aggression. Iran's use of long-range missiles and drones in Yemen also serves as a precursor to its current strategy, demonstrating a consistent approach to regional destabilization and intimidation.

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Therefore, in 2020, when the Abraham Accords were signed, the UAE and Bahrain entered into this peace deal with a sense that the region was shifting and that Israel was a good partner to have at a time of growing threats and also shifting alliances.

From our perspective in Jerusalem, this Iranian aggression underscores the critical importance of the Abraham Accords. The normalization agreements were not merely symbolic gestures; they were strategic calculations made in response to a shifting regional map and growing threats. The UAE and Bahrain, in signing these accords in 2020, recognized Israel as a vital partner during a period of increasing instability and evolving alliances. Iran's attacks only serve to validate this strategic foresight and reinforce the necessity of a united front against shared threats. The regional cooperation initiatives, such as I2U2 and the Negev Forum, gain even greater significance in light of these developments.

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All of this is similar to the tactics Iran is employing now.