Iran threatens invasion of Gulf states with 'strategic surprises'

Iran's military strategy has undergone a significant shift, moving towards a doctrine of aggression and preemptive strikes rather than its former approach of indirect confrontation. This change was signaled when regime leader Mojtaba Khamenei recently reshuffled military leadership, issuing directives for "maximum deterrence" and readiness for "massive offensive operations against the enemy."

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maximum deterrence

This new doctrine appears to be emboldened by Iran's recent retaliatory actions against Israel and US bases following American-Israeli airstrikes. Despite suffering considerable damage, the Iranian regime views these exchanges as a victory, with Revolutionary Guard chief Ahmad Vahidi claiming Iran forced the "strongest army in world history" to its knees. Khamenei apparently does not believe in a negotiated solution, as evidenced by Iran's Foreign Ministry declaring a preliminary agreement with the US null and void, and President Trump indicating he would not extend a 60-day agreement.

This mutual signaling suggests both sides anticipate renewed hostilities. Iran fundamentally distrusts the US, particularly Trump, citing previous attacks during ongoing negotiations. Khamenei's new military doctrine reflects this deep-seated mistrust. Iran is now threatening attacks in the Gulf region to demonstrate that military or economic pressure from the US cannot be applied without repercussions.

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massive offensive operations against the enemy

Meanwhile, the US is preparing new economic sanctions aimed at compelling Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, Iran and Oman are engaged in discussions for joint management of the vital waterway, a negotiation that notably excludes the United States. Trump has issued a threat towards Muscat, stating that if Oman obstructs the talks, "we will bomb everything to smithereens."

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The Iran has forced the strongest army in world history to its knees.

Israeli Iran expert Danny Citrinowicz of the INSS security policy institute commented, "Tehran does not want an eternal war, but the current Iranian assessment emphasizes initiative and attack." This suggests Iran's strategic calculus prioritizes proactive engagement over a prolonged stalemate, especially in the face of perceived external pressure.

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If Oman now obstructs, we will bomb everything to smithereens.