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Iran unlikely to ever willingly surrender control over Strait of Hormuz, INSS expert claims

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Context piece
  • An expert believes Iran is unlikely to willingly relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz, viewing it as a significant strategic achievement.
  • The expert suggests the U.S. might eventually recognize Iranian control, potentially allowing Iran to impose fees or charges.
  • Iran is seen as unlikely to compromise, likely leveraging perceived U.S. military reluctance and shortages to its advantage.

Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), stated that Iran is highly unlikely to voluntarily surrender control over the Strait of Hormuz, which it considers its most significant strategic achievement. Zimmt suggested that the U.S. may eventually be prepared to acknowledge a change in the status quo regarding Iranian control over the strait.

The Iranians see Hormuz as their most significant strategic achievement.

— Dr. Raz ZimmtExplaining Iran's perspective on the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz.

This potential recognition could empower Iran to dictate arrangements and possibly impose charges, such as service or environmental fees. Zimmt indicated that the U.S. appears willing to accept such a shift in control over the vital waterway. However, he expressed skepticism about Iran's willingness to compromise on the issue.

American recognition of Iranian control over the strait, in one form or another, would mean not only that the Iranians determine the arrangements, but that at some point they would also be able to charge something.

— Dr. Raz ZimmtSpeculating on the potential consequences of U.S. recognition of Iranian control.

Zimmt believes Iran is closely monitoring reports of U.S. military shortages and a reluctance among U.S. military leadership to re-engage in conflict, suggesting Iran will likely exploit these perceived weaknesses. He noted that recent negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding arrangements for reopening the Strait of Hormuz do not signify any withdrawal of Iran's demands.

There is no doubt that the Iranians are reading, just like everyone else, the reports being published both here and in the US about the shortage of interceptors and the reluctance of the US military leadership to return to war, and it is clear that they will take advantage of that.

— Dr. Raz ZimmtAnalyzing Iran's likely strategic calculations based on perceived U.S. vulnerabilities.

According to Zimmt, the original memorandum of understanding stipulated that alongside Iran reopening the strait, the U.S. would take measures like releasing frozen assets, easing oil export sanctions, and lifting the naval blockade. Iran views these actions as having been violated by the U.S., leading to demands for additional concessions.

From their perspective, the Americans violated the memorandum of understanding, and now they are demanding additional concessions.

— Dr. Raz ZimmtExplaining Iran's view on the U.S. failure to meet previous commitments.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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