Iraq forced to balance US, Iran relations after separate meetings with Trump, Iranian ambassador

Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, attempting to forge a new partnership with the United States while simultaneously engaging with Iran, a move that raises questions about Iraq's ability to assert its independence.

Last week, al-Zaidi met with U.S. President Donald Trump in the United States, presenting himself as a young leader focused on Iraq's future and eager to avoid past failures. He also engaged with members of Congress and business leaders, seeking to establish a new alliance. However, upon his return to Baghdad, al-Zaidi met with the Iranian ambassador to Iraq. This dual engagement underscores the persistent challenge Iraq faces in balancing the influence of Washington and Tehran, particularly given the internal power of Iranian-backed militias.

These militias, organized under the umbrella of Hashd al-Shaabi or the Popular Mobilization Forces, have significantly weakened Iraq internally over the past decade. Many of these groups have historical ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with some connections dating back to the 1980s. With tens of thousands of fighters, these militias were instrumental in the war against ISIS but have since continued to exert considerable influence over the Iraqi government, engaging in actions such as attacking protesters and American forces, and targeting the Kurdistan Region.

Prime Minister al-Zaidi has pledged to bring all militia arms under state control, a vow that faces significant hurdles. The ambiguity of what "state control" entails leaves room for interpretation, potentially leading to mere bureaucratic shifts rather than actual disarmament. Evidence of militias smuggling weapons toward the Syrian border, possibly for Hezbollah, suggests they retain considerable military capacity and operational autonomy. The difficulties Iraq faces in disarming these powerful groups echo challenges seen in Lebanon and Gaza, highlighting the deep-seated nature of Iran-backed militia influence.